The most surprising part of today’s Q Poll is that Lieberman is only up 49-39, though that’s enough. I guess a few diehards must still say they’ll vote for Alan Schlesinger, but with every passing week, his failure to gain traction makes it less likely he’ll get more than a smattering of votes. Republicans would be crazy to risk a Lamont win when they know Lieberman is at least sometimes on their side of key votes.
The simple math dictates that Lieberman will win. He’ll clearly get at least half the independents and most of the Republicans. He’ll probably get at least 25-35 percent of Democrats, too, and possibly more. After all, many Democrats are conservative and nearly all of them have voted for Lieberman before. That’s half the electorate right there — enough to win.
How can Lamont make inroads? Well, he can’t win the GOP votes at all. And he probably can’t cut into Lieberman’s thinning Democratic ranks much more. So he has to find a way to appeal to the independents who are naturally sympathetic to an independent candidate who’s known for his bipartisanship. And I don’t see how Lamont can do it, despite funny commercials ripping into Joe.
I hate President Bush as much as anyone. He’s been awful in every possible way. I wish Lieberman shared my view, of course, but I still haven’t seen a good reason to throw him out of office instead of sending him back to help shape a Democratic future that has to include mainstream America, not just the starry-eyed idealists of the left.